Mandate’s Impact May Be Limited, Report Says

WASHINGTON – In legal terms, the issue before the Supreme Court on Tuesday could not be more momentous. The court’s ruling on the constitutionality of the health care law’s requirement that most Americans obtain medical insurance may define the boundaries of Congress’ authority to regulate interstate commerce for generations.

But if upheld, the insurance requirement’s impact on average citizens may be surprisingly limited, according to new research by the Urban Institute for the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The study found that if put in place today, the insurance mandate would force only 18.2 million Americans – 7 percent of the nonelderly population – to buy new health coverage (or pay an income tax penalty for noncompliance). The other 93 percent either already have health insurance or would fall under various exemptions included in the law.

“In short, the vast majority of those potentially subject to the individual mandate have coverage today and will not obtain a different type of coverage post-reform,” the study concluded.

The report is a snapshot in time and does not account for steadily declining rates of private insurance in recent years or potential changes in eligibility for cash-strapped government insurance programs like Medicare.

Using a simulation model based on 2011 data, the researchers concluded that a third of the United States population under 65 would be exempt from the law’s provisions, primarily because they fall beneath income thresholds. Other exemptions are available for Native Americans, those with religious objections and those who can demonstrate economic hardship. Nearly three-fourths of those who would be exempt already have health coverage of some kind, according to the study

Of the remaining 181 million nonelderly Americans (the elderly are almost universally covered by Medicare), 86 percent are estimated to have health coverage now. Almost all would be expected to continue to have coverage once the health care act is fully carried out in 2014, when the insurance mandate takes effect.

Of the 18.2 million uninsured people who would be required to buy coverage under the mandate, nearly 11 million would be eligible for subsidized premiums offered through health insurance exchanges that would be established in 2014. That would leave 7.3 million people – 3 percent of the nonelderly population – who would be required by the mandate to buy coverage at full cost or pay a penalty.

Source & Image : New York Times